Bitcoin at a Crossroads

Video: Bitcoin Came THIS Close to Breaking Down: $97K Next?

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Oct 20, 2026 · based on the channel Gareth Soloway

Bitcoin is a two-level trade right now: the crypto sits in a roughly $6,000 range between $81,000 support and $87,200 resistance, and whichever side breaks on a daily close sets the next target. Above $87,200 three separate factors converge near $95,000–$97,000, while a daily close below $81,000 opens $75,500 and then the $67,000 zone where the rest of the buy plan sits. Gareth Soloway lays out both paths chart by chart, and new accounts can lock in tier-one fee pricing through the Coinbase registration link.

What the flush to $79,750 actually changed

A wick to about $79,750 that closes back above $81,000 is a test of support, not a breakdown. Bitcoin hammered that $81,000 line again during the session, traded below it intraday, and still finished back above it — the kind of flush that shakes out leveraged longs without damaging the bullish structure. That distinction matters because the level is defined by daily closes, not by intraday prints: a stop-hunt that recovers is noise, while a close beneath it is a signal. Until a daily candle settles under $81,000, the range between the two key levels remains the working map.

Why crypto is holding up while the AI trade slides

Relative strength is the story: Bitcoin has been hanging in there even as the AI trade and the Nasdaq slide. When a risk asset refuses to make new lows while its high-beta cousins are selling off, it usually means supply is being absorbed rather than distributed. That does not guarantee upside, but it changes the burden of proof — the bear case now needs a confirmed break of support rather than simply a weak tape elsewhere. For crypto traders watching the correlation to tech, this divergence is a reason to respect the $81,000 line rather than front-run a breakdown.

The three upside factors that converge near $97,000

Above $87,200 the upside case is built on confluence, not on a single line. Three independent measurements point to roughly the same area:

1. Rising trend line. The trend line drawn off the consolidation structure reaches the low $90,000s first, around $91,000, and keeps climbing — which is why the same target can carry into late November without the chart needing a new catalyst.
2. Measured move. Projecting the height of the consolidation from the breakout point produces a target in the $96,000–$97,000 band.
3. Prior pivot highs. The old swing highs sit right in that same $95,000–$97,000 zone, giving the measured move a historical reference point.

When a trend line, a measured move and prior pivots land within a couple of thousand dollars of each other, traders treat the cluster as a magnet rather than a precise number. The trigger is unchanged: the upside only counts above $87,200 on a daily close. Between $81,000 and $87,200 there is no trade — just a $6,000 chop zone that punishes impatience.

The bear case and the two buy zones below $81,000

A daily close below $81,000 opens $75,500, and that level is treated as a starter buy, not a full commitment. The plan is to deploy only about 25% of the intended position there, keeping the rest of the capital dry for a deeper flush. The second zone sits around $67,000, where the remainder gets loaded. This staged approach answers the question of whether to go all in at $75,500 — the answer is no, because a support break can extend, and sizing is what keeps a trader solvent through the extension. The cycle low is assumed to be in until the market proves otherwise, but the plan does not depend on that assumption being right.

Ethereum and HBAR setups in the same crypto tape

Ethereum is trading in its own range with two clean reference points. A heavy buy zone sits just below $2,000, making the psychological round number the place where bids are expected to show up; on the other side, a breakout sets up a retest of $2,800. The structure mirrors Bitcoin's logic — defined risk at a range edge, target at the opposite extreme.

HBAR offered a swing trade on a retrace to the scene of the crime, meaning price returning to the level where the prior move originated. That entry was shared with Smart Money Crypto members, with a target near $0.10. The setup is a reminder that altcoins reward patience for a pullback into a known level rather than chasing an extended candle.

Why a written game plan beats emotional trading

A game plan is what keeps emotion out of a trade, and the absence of one is why so many traders get whipsawed. The practical version is simple: define the trigger (a daily close above $87,200 or below $81,000), define the size at each level (25% at $75,500, the rest near $67,000), and define the invalidation before the position exists. Sitting flat inside a $6,000 range is a decision, not indecision — there is no swing position in Bitcoin, long or short, while price is trapped between the two lines. Traders who cannot articulate their levels in advance end up reacting to every wick, and wicks are exactly what a range produces.

Common questions from crypto traders

• Is Coinbase too expensive for this kind of trading? Fees and spreads are the most common complaint, which is why the tier-one pricing offer exists: signing up through the affiliate link gives access to lower fee tiers, and accounts that have been idle for 30 days qualify, as do viewers who originally joined under someone else's link.
• Can you short Bitcoin on Coinbase? Spot platforms are built for buying and selling, so bearish exposure usually means selling into cash or using derivatives elsewhere; the level-based plan above works either way because it is defined by closes, not by instrument.
• What if price just chops between the levels? Then nothing happens — the range is roughly $6,000 wide and the correct position size inside it is zero until a daily close resolves direction.
• Do the targets expire? The trend-line component keeps rising, which is why the $95,000–$97,000 cluster can stay valid into late November rather than being a one-week window.

Bottom line

Bitcoin survived a flush to $79,750 and closed back above $81,000, so the bullish structure is intact and the decision sits at $87,200. Above that line, a trend line, a measured move and prior pivot highs stack up near $95,000–$97,000; below $81,000, the plan is a 25% starter at $75,500 and the rest near $67,000. Ethereum's sub-$2,000 buy zone and $2,800 retest, plus the HBAR swing toward $0.10, follow the same discipline of pre-defined levels. The analysis comes from Gareth Soloway, whose channel walks through each chart and level in the video above. If you want tier-one fee pricing before the range resolves, use the Coinbase sign-up link to register.

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